KRudd's poisoned chalice? Not a good election to win ...

Excerpt from Sydney Morning Herald:

Not a good election to win

26 November 2007
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[t]his is a bad election for Kevin Rudd to win. He inherits an economy that, to every outward sign is in good shape but, after a record expansion phase of more than 16 years, is overdue for a cyclical correction.

So the chances of a recession occurring sometime during his reign are high - almost guaranteed. Worse, the chances of a recession in the next three years are high.

Do you see what that would mean? Mr Howard and his treasurer would go down in the electorate's mind as the exemplary economic managers they always assured us they were.

But Labor's reputation as bad economic managers would be burnt into the brains of a generation. Let the Laborites near an economy and the first thing they do is stuff it up.

Federal governments invariably get a second term as a matter of course. Even Whitlam's did. But should the recession occur during his first term it's easy to see Mr Rudd being dispatched at the first opportunity.

That would be through no fault of his own. He would simply be a victim of the vagaries of the business cycle. But try telling that to the punters. They have no deep understanding of economic cause and effect. They judge governments not so much by what they do as by what happens on their watch.
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See - Not a good election to win.