The need for perspective ...
Federal and state leaders have been told Australia is experiencing the worst drought in a 1,000 years (see- ABC News - 1000 year drought).
There's a real need to keep some perspective in the current drought.
Are researchers looking at Australian records for the past 1000 years which show this?
Perhaps there are cave paintings depicting the drought of 1000 years ago.
Dr Jennifer Marohasy made a similar point at the recent AEF Conference in Brisbane using photos of the Murray River in 1914 (when it ran dry) and in August 2006 (See Marohasy presentation) when it wasn't dry.
While the Federal and State governments need to address critical water infrastructure issues in Australia, there is no need for silly alarmist statements such as Australia being in the worst drought for 1,000 years ...
posted by Concerned Ratepayer at 3:22 PM
17 Comments:
The governments at all levels seem to be hell bent on scaring the people.
Now we are experiencing the worst drought in 1000 years, what a laugh.
We can only go by the written record as we know it and that tells us that droughts end!!!
We should be building DAMS.
8:20 PM, November 07, 2006
Here it is for all you nerdy politicions who don't have the time to research the facts and for all you scared people who believe anything the scaremongering drink recycled effluent people tell you. Australia is actually getting wetter!
12:22 AM, November 08, 2006
Thanks for the link Greg. While you are there, you should also click on the link “Go to Trend Maps”. There you will see clearly that while rainfall is increasing in some parts of Australia (North West), it is decreasing in others (East coast). That’s a component of what we call ‘climate change’. Regardless of anyone’s views on water recycling, I don’t think it is helpful to suggest that we are not currently experiencing a serious drought.
7:40 AM, November 08, 2006
I neglected to mention: to interpret the change over time, you need to select various "Periods" from the drop-down menu
7:47 AM, November 08, 2006
Parts of Australia are experiencing a bad drought but there's a need to remain sensible about comments made to the public.
10:27 AM, November 08, 2006
Seems Turnbull and Howard agree:
From news.com.au
7 November 2006
Turnbull doubts 1000-year drought claim
Malcolm Turnbull, the man charged with dealing with Australia's water crisis, says it's hard to tell if the current drought is the worst in a thousand years.
Mr Turnbull, the parliamentary secretary for water, is also in charge of a new Office for Water Resources.
Murray-Darling Basin Commission (MDBC) official David Dreverman gave the drought prognosis to Prime Minister John Howard and four state premiers during a emergency water summit in Canberra today.
But Mr Howard played down the assessment, saying he doubted anybody really knew if it was the worst drought in a thousand years.
Mr Turnbull tonight said that what Mr Dreverman was saying was that the probability of having a year as dry as 2006 was very low.
“It can be statistically calculated as one in a thousand but we don't know if there was one as bad in the last thousand years,” he told ABC TV.
“The PM was right to play that down.”
10:31 AM, November 08, 2006
Thanks for your input stuart, I expected that from you, you are one of those to whom I was alluding. While I did not say we were not currently in a drought like you suggested I will however argue with you or anyone else who states that the current dry spell here is an indication of long term depreciation in our rainfall patterns. The data for QLD clearly shows that this is not the case. You can pull down any state you like from the drop down list and you will clearly see no long term rainfall depreciation but you will notice ups and downs associated with drier and wetter short periods. Here in Australia we call them flood and drought years.
2:12 PM, November 08, 2006
Ohh and by long term I would suggest 50 years, not 5 to 10 as this is the common length of most Australian drought periods.
2:14 PM, November 08, 2006
Greg, I am certain that you are correct. Rainfall is notoriously variable from year to year, which makes it very challenging to spot trends overriding the ‘noise’ of normal variation. As long as we agree that we currently have a severe shortage of water in some places where we desperately need it, then we agree on the most important aspect of the discussion.
Rainfall in eastern Australia is highly dependant on El-Nino and La Nina ocean currents. Rising global temperatures has given some scientists cause to predict an increased frequency of El-Nino. If this is an accurate prediction, then decreased rainfall for eastern Australia is an almost definite consequence. We have been experiencing El-Nino for the majority of the last 6 years.
2:26 PM, November 08, 2006
The Australian Bureau of Meterology keep changing there predictions about El-nino to suit the current trends. If it doesn't rain like they say it should have then it is because a trend toward an El-nino emerged but if it rains cats and dogs then they tell us it is because a La-nino trend became more prominent. I take all of it with a grain of salt as it is only an indicator tool prone to rapid change of states due to cloud cover or clear skies over the pacific or indian oceans! At the moment SE and Southern QLD has been experiencing some good rainfall and this was not predicted by the BOM in there Nov to Jan rainfall outlook.
3:50 PM, November 08, 2006
Here is a reference to my above post!
3:56 PM, November 08, 2006
I just made it home and MOST of our street crossings are FLOODED!!!!!
I wonder if both the long rang forecasters are right and we are in for a lot of rain between now and Christmas.
4:57 PM, November 08, 2006
So much for it never raining again in Toowoomba. Mackenzie Street near the Waterbird Habitat was one metre under water today. Bet the runoff will wreck the Mayor's new garden at the back of the library yet again. How many times does it need to wash away before they give up?
7:21 PM, November 08, 2006
This Council are too stupid to know when it's time to change tack.
In the Council meeting to-day we had a fine example of this.
In their own Corporate Strategy document it states that they need a water catchment and most of them do not know as they had not read it.
Tempers flared when the new Councillor ask about Emu Creek Dam.
The Deputy Mayor Joe Ramia tell us on Win TV to-night that there was never a plan for a dam.
The Win TV reporter then showed us all that there is a plan for that dam and it has been around for some time.
The engineer and CEO tried to discredit Clive Berghofer and his assertions in the Chronicle recently that there was the need for the Emu Creek dam and it looks like they came unstuck in a big way.
Another interesting event to-day was that the a reporter from the Chronicle (Susan Searle)was not in the Council Chamber to report on all these going ons to-day.
One would have to ask who told her to stay away???
7:53 PM, November 08, 2006
'As long as we agree that we currently have a severe shortage of water in some places where we desperately need it, then we agree on the most important aspect of the discussion.'
Agree.
We need to put in place the infrastructure to reduce (but probably not eliminate) the risk of this occurring again.
And we need to think smarter about how we use water with communities being encouraged to make better use of stormwater and recycled water for non-potable use (we might disagee on the last point!).
7:53 PM, November 08, 2006
Actually, I also agree that these are excellent strategies and that we need to more with them.
8:44 PM, November 08, 2006
Turns out the records only go back 114 years. Maybe it's the worst drought in 115 years, if that.
12:15 PM, November 12, 2006
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